The meandering prime minister had long stood convicted in the court of public opinion, guilty of crimes like incompetence and corruption. Now he has also earned the sobriquet of being indicted in a court of law. But we know what will happen. Unlike any ordinary law abiding citizen who would hang his head in shame for falling foul of the law, the prime minister will instead wear this stigma as a badge of honour. He has been heard talking about how he has chaired more cabinet meetings than late Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto has served longer than both Mr Bhutto and Shaheed Benazir and will bring honour by being the Seraiki to sacrifice himself for the party instead of being one to sacrifice the party for his own personal motive (ala Farooq Leghari). Noble words indeed but the reality remains that he has been indicted for refusing to honour the verdict of the highest court of the land, and there is no honour in this. But a word here for the honourable court as well. Hopefully, it will also not shirk from passing similar indictments and convictions against erring generals – an opportunity that may soon be coming its way in the form of the Asghar Khan case.
And talking of generals, till a few days back, the chief of the army staff had felt it beneath his dignity to attend even ‘official’ functions of the prime minister who had spoken unkindly of him and his institution. There was talk of the army doing ‘everything’ to help the judiciary take the memo affair to its logical conclusion. Assurances were meted out to Mansoor Ijaz, the other joker in the jester deck, to come to Pakistan and nail the matter for good. Then something happened. What? We’ll never know. But what we do know is that the security forces quietly conveyed their inability to provide him impregnable security as the government had not appointed the “army as the lead agency”. Next, both the COAS and the DG ISI called on the prime minister a day before his departure for Davos. Barely had this sudden development been digested that the prime minister returned the favour by giving the duo a clean conduct slip and then slipping away to Davos. On the sidelines, Mansoor Ijaz huffed and puffed and decided to be a no-show in court. Whether there is credence in the latest talk about the US establishment pressurising him through his business partners – again we’ll never know. The supreme court for its part threw in its two pounds of goodness by refusing to allow the judicial commission to travel abroad. And of course, Haqqani too was allowed to leave Pakistan, which he promptly did.
Everyone, it seems suddenly wanted to just hush up the matter and move on with life. Everyone, it appears knows something about a dirty deal here, but we’ll of course never know. One day the country was faced with a near existential threat. The civil and military establishments openly squared off against one another. It had come down to being a do-or-die situation. Ambassador Haqqani lost his job, and his freedom. The president reportedly lost his mind. The COAS came close to losing his pips. The judges faced the dilemma of losing their credibility. Meanwhile the country lost whatever little remained of any semblance of working order.
Then, in a few days, magically, it was all over.
The judicial commission stands almost decommissioned Mansoor Ijaz is Mansoor who Haqqani is free without anyone being told why he was ‘incarcerated’ in the first place the judges enjoyed their share of popularity without having to make hard choices the Americans are happy for securing the future of both favourites. Net losers the people. Ah, the shameless dirty deals of our dirty power elite. Neither the sherwanis nor the uniforms have managed to remain spotlessly clean in the memo affair.
Will this shameless circus of dirty power arrangements ever end in Pakistan? Will there ever be closure on issues? Because unless matters are taken to their logical conclusions, things will keep recurring and with greater ferocity. Absence of desired accountability only guarantees the presence of undesirable happenings. The prime minister’s indictment, being seen by many as a prelude to serious accountability, has started the next round of political uncertainty in the country. The loyalists will deem it the latest threat to democracy at the hands of an activist judiciary. The complexion of matters to come will however be decided not by the judges but by the response of the ruling coalition. The prime minister’s future may stand threatened by the judges but not of the democratic system and this fine difference must not be deliberately smudged.
Ironically, the charging of the prime minister may prove the finest hour for democracy in our political history. Could there be a greater example of the maturing of the political system than an elected prime minister submitting himself to the supreme court and for the democratic process to cough up his replacement were he to lose his job in the process? The judges may have contributed to adding to the uncertainty of affairs but the real challenge to democracy comes not from a bunch of judges but from the future actions of those lording over the parliament. How the democrats behave today will determine democracy’s future in Pakistan.
The prime minister still has nine days to comply with court orders and avoid any extreme action but judging from the mood of the PM house and the presidency, defiance will persist. And this may make political sense for the PPP in particular because the beleaguered party could easily use another political martyr in the coming elections. Gilani has almost run his entire term in office and even if the PPP were to come to power again there would be a new prime minister in office. Surely, Gilani would have little desire to sit in the same house as an ordinary parliamentarian. Were he to remain steadfast in his stance and be convicted by the court he would then go out in a blaze of glory. He would secure a special place in his party’s history and also ensure loftier perches for his children, all of whom are already active in politics. On the other hand, were he to beat a conviction somehow, he would emerge as a much stronger prime minister.
The issue of writing the letter will not go away with Gilani and any future prime minister too would have to face the dilemma, in theory at least. In practical terms, the issue would be as good as dead if Gilani was mowed down in this standoff. It’s not easy for even the mightiest of supreme courts to strike down two prime ministers in one case. Gilani’s replacement would definitely get time from an ‘understanding’ court for formulating his/her actions. The PPP leadership would be able to get through with the Senate elections and the new prime minister could then announce early elections and thus set the transition process in motion. In such a scenario, where general elections are scheduled, say, a few months down the road and matters like the formation of a truly independent election commission cobbling together an acceptable interim-care taker setup etc are being tackled, the supreme court will surely be weary of upsetting the delicately balanced apple cart by insisting on another conviction.
Three cheers for democracy, PPP-style three cheers for justice Pakistan-style.
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